Early voting for Australia’s May 3 federal election opened on Tuesday, with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s center-left Labor party holding a narrow lead over the conservative opposition. With early and postal voting on the rise, nearly half of eligible Australians are expected to vote ahead of the official date, according to the Australian Electoral Commission.
Labor’s momentum comes as opposition leader Peter Dutton faces declining popularity, partly due to comparisons with former U.S. President Donald Trump. Dutton recently dropped a controversial proposal to mandate full-time office returns and cut thousands of public sector jobs, a plan likened to Trump’s government streamlining initiative led by Elon Musk’s so-called Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).
Polling has shifted significantly since January, when Dutton’s coalition led by six points. Now, Albanese’s Labor party holds a four-point edge after preference distribution, according to the latest Newspoll released Sunday. The preferential voting system allows voters to rank candidates, and redistributed votes often determine final outcomes.
Despite the lead, Albanese cautioned against overconfidence, citing the 2019 election upset when early predictions favored Labor, but the Liberals under Scott Morrison won instead. "There’s no complacency from my camp," Albanese stated at a press conference Monday, emphasizing the race remains competitive.
Campaign activities were toned down Tuesday due to the global mourning of Pope Francis’s passing. Both Albanese and Dutton are set to appear in their final televised debate Tuesday evening, a critical moment ahead of what’s shaping up to be one of Australia’s most closely watched elections in recent years.
This election is compulsory for all Australians over 18, and political analysts are watching closely as public sentiment continues to shift in the final days of campaigning.